Who’s Ready for a Wild Finish in the NFC South?

New Orleans Saints DE Payton Turner sacks Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr. Photo Credit: Michael Johnson / Nola.com

Will the real New Orleans Saints please stand up?

I wrote last week how the Saints were “borderline unwatchable” against Arizona.

What’s the opposite of that? Completely watchable? That’s how the Saints played in their 24-0 shutout of the Raiders.

That dominant win – and it was dominant – puts the Saints right in the thick of the NFC South hunt. The leaders are the Falcons at 4-4 (the only division foe the Saints have beaten), the Bucs and Saints are tied at 3-5, and the Panthers are 2-6 after an overtime heartbreaker Sunday.

Everybody plays each other one more time. Buckle up.

If you’re like me, with Thanksgiving around the corner, you’re starting to think about ingredients to cook your favorite recipes. So here are two key ingredients for the Saints to keep winning.

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STRONG DEFENSE – LIKE WE’RE USED TO!

If you need a reminder of how strong the Saints’ defense was against the Raiders, it’s this statistic right here:

The Raiders didn’t cross midfield until 2:25 remained in the game.

Derek Carr wasn’t even in at QB anymore; it was Jarrett Stidham in relief. Say no more.

We wanted to see that “swagger” from the whole Saints team, but especially the defense – and boy did they bring it. The energy was palpable, especially after each of their 4 sacks, two by Payton Turner and one by David Onyemata.

That brings their season sack total up to a much more respectable 19, but who’s counting?

A few more nuggets for the defense to use for motivation as Monday night’s home game against Baltimore and QB Lamar Jackson looms:

• They held Raiders RB Josh Jacobs to 43 rushing yards. But we know the Ravens are a different beast with Lamar Jackson. And the Saints aren’t the best at defending dual-threat QBs even when they’re a highly-ranked defense. (Cue bad memories of Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen last season). The run defense needs to show up again – the Ravens average 165.6 yards rushing per game and 5.7 yards per carry.
• CB Alontae Taylor kept Davante Adams in check (1 catch for 3 yards). He’s definitely one to keep watching.
• The Saints won the turnover battle thanks to Tyrann Mathieu’s second-quarter interception (he dropped another one on the Raiders’ final drive), and equally as important, the offense capitalized off the turnover with a touchdown – not a field goal. That’s the complementary football they need to win the NFC South.

RUNNING GAME – LED BY KING KAMARA

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) eludes Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Divine Deablo (5). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY

Alvin Kamara woke up big time Sunday.

He scored all three of the Saints’ touchdowns and racked up 158 total yards.

As a whole, the Saints were as balanced as it gets on offense.

32 rushes for 136 yards. 31 passes for 231 yards.

Controlling the clock 34:51 to 25:09.

QB Andy Dalton was not sacked.

But – the elephant in the room. Injuries at WR.

Dennis Allen announced today Michael Thomas is officially on IR with his toe injury. I don’t think Saints fans anywhere are surprised to see this.

But we have to move on. Thomas has played a grand total of three games this season. Caught 16 passes for 171 yards and 3 TDs.

Hopefully we’ll learn more about Jarvis Landry’s status for Monday night. I’d love to see more production from Rashid Shaheed and of course Taysom Hill in the running & receiving game. Good things happen when he’s on the field.

We talked about the Ravens’ rushing offense earlier, but don’t sleep on the Saints’ rushing attack. They average 141.2 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry through eight games. If the Saints can jump out to a lead Monday like they did against the Raiders, running the ball and chewing up clock with Alvin Kamara’s legs will be their best friend.

BOTTOM LINE

We’re almost halfway through the football season – Week 9 starts tonight with the undefeated Eagles facing the Texans. (Could it be a game ripe for an upset?!) I’ve always said Thursday Night Football is the ultimate equalizer. Philadelphia is trying to go 8-0, Houston has the worst rushing defense in the NFL, it’s Jalen Hurts’ homecoming …

OK, back to the Saints.

They’re nowhere close to the Eagles in the NFC. However, their goal of winning a division title is still right in front of them. That’s how wild the NFC South is. They got their must-win game. Now it’s time to keep the momentum going and put together a winning streak.

Easier said than done with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens coming to town.

A national TV audience will be watching. Will the Saints be ready Monday night?

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YOUR TURN

Let me know in the comments below:

• Can the Saints beat the Ravens and gain ground in the NFC South?
• Who will win the NFC South?

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New Orleans Saints Grind Out Wild Card Win to Set Up Brady-Brees Part 3

It still counts as a win – the win that kept the New Orleans Saints’ season alive – but if you’re a Saints fan like me, you might be thinking, “It shouldn’t have been that hard.”

Sean Payton receiving a postgame slime bath courtesy of Nickelodeon seemed like a fitting ending to the Saints’ ugly playoff victory that eliminated the Chicago Bears, 21-9. But as I left the Mercedes-Benz Superdome with my dad – thrilled we got to attend a game in person together this crazy season – we couldn’t help but hope the Saints have more in the tank than they showed, especially on offense, for the Divisional round vs. Tampa Bay.

Their season sweep of the Bucs, including a 38-3 prime-time demolition Nov. 8, should give them plenty of inspiration. But Tom Brady has never lost to the same team three teams in a season in his career. Will it happen at the hands of Drew Brees and the Saints Sunday, Jan. 17, in their first-ever playoff showdown? It’s certainly possible.

Here are my top 3 reasons for optimism (and a couple causes for concern) after the Bears game:

Reasons for Optimism

• Saints are getting healthier. Offensive players like Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara both scored touchdowns in their rousing returns to the lineup, but let’s not forget about WR/punt returner Deonte Harris.

Harris was an incredible offensive asset, making contributions when it felt sluggish otherwise, leading the team with 7 catches (on 7 targets) for 83 yards. Kamara started to find his groove in the second half – you just had the sense that he wanted the ball after being sidelined due to COVID-19 last week. The one person the Saints really missed on the injury front would have to be defensive end Trey Hendrickson. Without their sack leader, they struggled to consistently pressure QB Mitchell Trubisky, sacking him only once and forcing no turnovers. Hopefully they get him back next week, along with receiver Tre’Quan Smith to provide another offensive weapon.

• Third-down conversions. The Saints dominated time of possession 38:58-21:02 and ran 75 plays to the Bears’ 49. Chicago didn’t convert its first 3rd down conversion until the 2-minute warning of the fourth quarter, finishing 1-for-10 (10%) and 0-for-1 on 4th downs. The Saints, conversely, were 11-of-17 on third down conversions (64.7%), sustaining two long touchdown drives, though they were aided by nine Chicago penalties – five resulting in Saints first downs. Don’t count on that kind of help from the Bucs in the next do-or-die showdown.

• Dominant defense. I would’ve liked to see a takeaway or two and more than one sack, but overall the defense did its job Sunday when the offense was floundering early. No, it wasn’t a perfect performance – Chicago’s Javon Wims had a wide-open touchdown fall right through his hands when the score was only 7-0, and a touchdown on the game’s final play didn’t exactly feel great – but more importantly, the Saints shut down one of the Bears’ big weapons in RB David Montgomery (just 31 yards on 12 carries). Now the pass rush must get to Brady next week and force him into bad throws. The Saints have already intercepted him five times this season – the playoffs are a perfect time to add more!

Reasons for Concern

• Ball security. The Saints’ Week 17 interception-fest, racking up five picks and increasing their season turnover margin to +9 at Carolina, had them trending in the right direction. But Chicago’s only relevant points Sunday came on a field goal directly after the Bears recovered a Taysom Hill fumble.

If this sounds like a pattern, you’re right. Hill has fumbled 10 times this season, one of the issues with his game we’ve noticed. New Orleans narrowly escaped another turnover against the Bears when a Brees interception was overturned by replay. The Saints made Tom Brady pay for his mistakes in the season sweep so far. Seems to me that this team will go as far as the defense will take it.

• Kicking game. Wil Lutz missed yet another field goal Sunday, hooking a 50-yard attempt wide right indoors. He’s now 22-of-27 on the season after he started 18-of-19. Playoff games so often come down to special teams, so the Saints can’t afford to have question marks at kicker. Remember when Lutz drilled the 58-yarder at home to beat Houston in the 2019 season opener? The Saints need that kind of confidence in their special teams unit to make virtually any kick, especially if they advance and have to travel in the playoffs.

No. 2 New Orleans Saints Host No. 7 Chicago Bears Sunday at 3:40: First Look

We can stop simulating playoff scenarios now – the New Orleans Saints’ “Super Wild Card Weekend” matchup is official. The Chicago Bears are coming to town, a foe they faced earlier this season and escaped with a 26-23 overtime win at Soldier Field.

It’s the first-ever NFC matchup featuring No. 2 vs. No. 7 seeds in this expanded playoff format, and many Saints fans might be having thoughts like, “How is this fair? If this was any other year, we’d be sitting pretty with a first-round bye (formerly granted to the top two teams in each conference).”

But these are the rules. Hey, look on the bright side – Alvin Kamara has a better chance of returning from COVID-19 since the game is Sunday at 3:40 p.m., if he meets all league protocols. However, he cannot practice or be with the team before Sunday. But it’s straight up impressive how Sean Payton and the Saints plug and play no matter who’s been unavailable at various points this season, from offensive stalwarts to defensive playmakers:

• No running backs, no problem: WR/RB Ty Montgomery (pictured, cred. USA Today) ran 18 times for 105 yards, including a long of 36 yards, as part of the Saints’ 156-yard rushing day.

We’ll keep a close eye on if Kamara can return for Sunday and build on his career-high 1,688 scrimmage yards, as well as when Latavius Murray, Dwayne Washington and Trey Burton return – they are expected back this week. Drew Brees was sacked twice Sunday, but he put together some great throws, including a highlight-reel catch by undrafted free agent pickup Marquez Callaway, and most importantly, zero interceptions.

• You get an interception, you get an interception…..: The Saints’ turnover margin improved to +9 with five interceptions by five different players (Malcolm Jenkins, Grant Haley, Marshon Lattimore, P.J. Williams, Ken Crawley) at Carolina, and they didn’t turn the ball over. That’s a recipe for winning football in the postseason. They also racked up five sacks.

• Offense clicking at the right time: The Saints’ offense was balanced in their final regular season game – 30 runs for 156 yards & 32 passes for 191 yards – huge especially if they have to travel in the playoffs. But let’s not look too far ahead. Against the Bears, the Saints will definitely get top receiver Michael Thomas back, and possibly even Deonte Harris. And just look the season they’ve been able to put together without their biggest offensive weapons – Brees, Kamara and Thomas have only played 10 quarters together all year – they cracked the top 5 in scoring offense for the fifth straight year.

On Sunday, WR Emmanuel Sanders praised Payton’s masterful game planning in the face of adversity.

“He’s one of the best coaches I’ve ever played for,” Sanders said. I’ve enjoyed being around his energy and his intellect. To me, the coach of the year.”

So can the New Orleans Saints fend off the Bears a second time this season? The Bears put themselves in playoff position with three straight wins scoring 33 points or more before landing with a thud Sunday against Green Bay, 35-16. However, they still backed into the playoffs with Arizona’s loss to the L.A. Rams – completely opposite of the Saints, who are gaining momentum.

Here’s a quick snapshot of the Bears’ season: 5-1 start, lose six straight, win three of four, with two quarterback changes sandwiched in (they’re back to Mitchell Trubisky after Nick Foles was injured in Week 10). Their three most recent wins came against struggling teams – Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville – and the Bears are just the third team since the 1970 merger to reach the playoffs after losing six in a row. Congratulations, I guess?

David Montgomery is their workhorse at running back (1,070 yards, 4.3 avg, 8 TDs), and Chicago has receiving weapons in Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and TE Jimmy Graham, so the Saints’ defense needs to be ready to get pressure, create turnovers and force field goals in the red zone.

Back in November at Chicago, the Saints offense was just 1-of-4 in the red zone and 2-of-13 on 3rd-down conversions against the Bears defense, arguably the strength of their team. It’s worth nothing though that the scoring defenses are virtually tied, yet favor the Saints (21 ppg to 23 ppg). Wil Lutz also missed a 27-yard field goal off the right upright (though he did convert the game-winner in overtime). Bears kicker Cairo Santos, meanwhile, was a perfect 3-for-3 in field goals. Playoff games so often come down to special teams, so we’ll keep our fingers crossed for a clean performance in the kicking game.

As Saints fans, we’ve learned the hard way NOTHING is guaranteed in the postseason. No game is automatic. Everyone is 0-0. Time to chase another Lombardi Trophy!

New Orleans Saints Need to Fight for the NFC South Title

It’s extremely hard to win a football game when your defense is on the field for 41 minutes and 92 snaps. But remarkably, with Drew Brees admittedly not 100 percent and an offense missing top target Michael Thomas and only converting 1 of 11 on third down, the New Orleans Saints came pretty close.

But close doesn’t cut it against Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Despite the Saints defense playing championship caliber – forcing a season-high six Chiefs punts, sacking Mahomes four times and forcing a fumble that led to a quick touchdown – the Saints only led for 4 minutes and 53 seconds in the third quarter and eventually lost, 32-29.

Ultimately, the Saints defense rose to the occasion against Mahomes’ magic, but missed opportunities doomed the Saints’ hopes for an upset. They committed 10 penalties, including one that resulted in Cam Jordan’s ejection, Brees threw an early interception during his 0-for-6 start that led to a Chiefs touchdown,

and there was the ultimate blown opportunity when the Saints (ahem, Alex Anzalone, pictured) couldn’t recover Demarcus Robinson’s fumble in the end zone, resulting in a safety instead of a game-tying touchdown to close the first half.

What Does It Mean?

This loss is painful to swallow when the 10-4 Saints realize they still have work to do now on a two-game skid, and on a short week with the NFC South title still yet to be clinched. (The Falcons blew yet another second-half lead Sunday to Tom Brady and the Bucs, so Tampa Bay is right there at 9-5). So sure, it would have been nice to lock up the title with an upset over the Chiefs, but at this point the Saints just have to get it done.

New Orleans has two more NFC games left, starting on Christmas Day hosting the Minnesota Vikings, who must win out and get help to make the postseason. If the Saints want to remain the No. 2 seed behind Green Bay, their final two games are virtual must-wins. See the playoff picture.

It’s time for the Saints to take care of business and fight for what they want – as a team. Maybe the Saints will get another chance at the Chiefs at full strength in Super Bowl LV. But first priority is a fourth straight NFC South title.

Now doesn’t that sound like a great Christmas gift for New Orleans?

New Orleans Saints’ Ultimate Statement Win

There’s no other way to slice it.

The New Orleans Saints’ 38-3 victory Sunday night at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was a demolition of epic proportions. It reminded me of the Nov. 30, 2009 game against the Patriots when Bill Belichick actually pulled Tom Brady late in the game because the Saints were so in command.

But that was then.

This game was arguably more critical because control of the NFC South was on the line.

The Saints had rather quietly won four straight games entering the showdown. Drew Brees and Brady were wrestling for the NFL’s all-time lead in passing touchdowns. The Bucs were sporting one of the NFL’s best defenses. But six days after Tampa Bay escaped the New York Giants’ MetLife Stadium with a two-point win, fighting to the final snap, the Saints stormed into Raymond James Stadium and asserted firm control.

The statistics are eye-popping.

New Orleans won the time of possession battle 40:04 to 19:56 and forced Brady into three more interceptions in the worst loss of his career in terms of margin.

It’s also the first time ever he’s been swept by a division rival (sorry, Tom, no more Jets to blow out in the NFC South).

The Saints defense – yes, the Saints defense – has five of Brady’s seven interceptions this season, and they pressured him relentlessly, including three sacks (two by Trey Hendrickson, who now is No. 3 in the NFL with 7.5 sacks.

Here are some other reasons the Saints put on a performance that fans will remember for a long time:

1. 12 different receivers caught a pass! The Saints were finally full strength on offense with the returns of Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but the fact that 11 different players in the first half alone had receptions showed you that everyone came to play. The Saints controlled the clock with 37 runs and 29 passes, and Brees added four more touchdowns for a 564-561 career lead over Brady, for now.

2. Winning in the trenches. Every time you turned around, it seemed like Brady’s offensive line was helping him off the turf. Yes, starting left guard Ali Marpet was out with a concussion, but three sacks, nine QB hits, and pressures on 46% of his dropbacks is impressive for the Saints defense to build on. Not to mention holding the Bucs to 1 of 9 on 3rd down conversions and 0 of 3 on 4th downs! On the other side, the Saints rushed for 138 yards (3.7 avg) against what was the NFL’s No. 1-ranked run defense. Taysom Hill (7 carries, 54 yards) and Alvin Kamara (9 carries, 40 yards, 1 TD) led the way on the ground, and the Saints O-line committed no holding penalties!

3. Saints thrive as underdogs! Didn’t you just have a feeling when the whole SNF pregame team picked the Bucs that the Saints might shock the world?

I thought it would be a nail-biter similar to their two overtime contests, but a sheer smackdown came out of nowhere. It wasn’t perfect – let’s not forget the two fumbles – but the defense responded by forcing drives of:

• 3 plays, 2 yards, punt

• 6 plays, 20 yards, downs (the goal line stand when the Saints already led 31-0)

So the Saints passed Sunday night’s test with flying colors, and now they have some very winnable games ahead of them, starting with two straight home games against the 49ers & Falcons. A fourth straight NFC South title would be unprecedented, but with a sweep of Brady’s Bucs, it’s officially the Saints’ race to lose.